Thursday, February 2, 2012

Do I buy into Facebook? The IPO that is.



It may be another case of "Putting your money where your mouth is".

My Google stock is up over 100% and my Amazon over 400%,  but I understand the business models of those two. If what I read so far about the long term viability of Facebook and the sentiment of those that have chosen to comment on the IPO so far, I am not alone in wondering what Facebook are going to do with the money so raised by making a public offering.

With all the talk over privacy and the brokerage of personal information there also seems to be a reluctance for Internet users to fully accept what some the now behemoths want to do with the information that they have manged to extract from us so far. There could be a revolt as more and more users become disenchanted with what is being done with the information that they have entered on-line.

I have invested in "Tech" stocks in the past, some have done well, others not so. Some of my Apple is up to almost 800% (I did buy some more). I have long since dumped Microsoft and AMD are still in the doldrums. I should have bought more Amazon, but that I did was in a "fire-sale" when their future was in question.

I think what I will do with Facebook is just wait and see. Like Tim Horton's there is likely to be a spike in stock price as all the Institutional investors get in and out to make a quick profit. I am sure that there will be the same whining from the small guy who is going to get upset by not being able to to buy-in on IPO day, although I have also read that the Facebook IPO may come with a twist in that regard. This time it is different, Facebook's stock in trade is the support of its users, they can't afford to piss them off too much. If Facebook users see the stock price soar and they can't get in on the action they may start to wonder what they are getting out of all this. The Facebook user is also likely to be one of the 99% and as such may also take offense to the 1% getting a slice of their pie!

I see a mixed message here - I think I will observe from the side lines. I could buy on the down-swing as I did successfully with Timmies, but the only reason I got into them in the first place was in response to the line-ups outside the coffee shops (and TH was part of Wendy's at the time). The love affair with TH doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon, Social Networking, however, I am not so sure. But then, I can afford to wait.

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